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While world leaders assemble in the Brazilian Amazon for Cop30, it is crucial to review our collective progress in lowering worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases.

In spite of three decades of UN climate summits, approximately half of the CO2 built up in the atmosphere after the dawn of industrialization has been emitted after the year 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 marked the publication of the First Assessment Report by the IPCC, which confirmed the danger of anthropogenic climate change. While researchers work on the Seventh Assessment Report, they do so aware that their work remains eclipsed by political agendas. Despite well-intentioned efforts, the planet is still far from the path to prevent catastrophic climate change.

Record-Breaking CO₂ Levels and Carbon-Based Fuel Dependency

Latest figures indicate that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels hit a new peak of 423.9 parts per million in 2024, with the growth rate from 2023 to 2024 jumping by the biggest annual rise since record-keeping started in 1957. According to the Global Carbon Project, 90% of total global CO₂ emissions in last year originated from the combustion of carbon-based energy sources, while the other tenth was due to alterations in land use such as deforestation and wildfires.

While the increase in carbon emissions from fuels in recent times was propelled by higher use of gas and oil—representing over half of worldwide discharges—the use of coal also attained a record high, making up 41%. Despite Cop28’s global stocktake calling for nations to transition away from carbon fuels, collective plans still aim to extract over twice the quantity of hydrocarbons in 2030 than aligns with limiting planet heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius, with continued extraction of natural gas justified as a lower emission transition fuel.

The Mirage of Eco-Friendly Measures

Instead of concentrating on economic incentives to speed up the phase-out of carbon fuels, climate policies are overly dependent on feel-good nature positive solutions that aim to cancel out CO2 output by afforestation instead of cutting industrial emissions. While conserving, enlarging, and restoring natural carbon sinks like forests and marshes is beneficial in itself, research has shown that there is not enough land to achieve the global goal of net zero emissions using nature-based solutions alone.

Roughly one billion hectares—a territory bigger than the USA—is needed to fulfill carbon neutrality commitments. Over 40% of this area would need to be converted from existing uses like agriculture to carbon sequestration projects by the year 2060 at an never-before-seen pace.

Even if this regenerative utopia could be achieved, woodlands require years to grow and can burn down, so they should not be viewed as a fast or permanent carbon storage solution, especially in a fast-changing environment. While severe temperatures and aridity engulf more of the planet, these sincere attempts could literally be destroyed by fire.

The Weakening of Natural Carbon Sinks

Scientific evidence indicates that about 50% of the total CO₂ emitted each year remains in the atmosphere, while the remainder is absorbed by oceans and terrestrial systems. With global heating, these environmental absorbers are becoming less effective at soaking up CO₂, which means that more carbon builds up in the air, intensifying global warming. Transferring the mitigation burden onto the agricultural and forest sectors effectively excuses the oil and gas sector from the pressure to reduce emissions any time soon.

The Carbon Debt and Coming Populations

Reaching carbon neutrality by mid-century requires carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which at present relies almost exclusively on terrestrial methods to soak up excess carbon from the air. Emitting companies can simply buy carbon credits to counterbalance their emissions and continue with normal operations. Meanwhile, the planetary heat imbalance caused by the combustion of hydrocarbons keeps on further disrupt the global climate system. In effect, we are increasing our climate liability to our global account, passing on future generations with an insurmountable burden.

To curb the magnitude and duration of overshoot the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the world eventually needs to go well beyond the neutralising effect of net zero and start to drawdown past carbon outputs to reach net negative emissions.

The Political Distortion of Carbon Neutrality

Based on the most recent data from the international carbon research group, vegetation-based CDR is presently capturing the equal of about five percent of annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions, while technology-based CDR represents only about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from carbon sources. Optimistic industry estimates suggest around zero point one percent of worldwide CO2 output. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the policy twisting of net zero is an insidious loophole that takes focus away from the research-based necessity to eliminate the primary cause of our warming world—carbon-based energy.

The Critical Requirement for Concrete Action

While this scientific reality should dominate talks at the climate summit, history suggests that polite incrementalism and political kowtowing will win out. Vague statements of future ambition will keep on delay the urgent need for definite short-term measures. Until leaders have the courage to put a price on carbon to bring the era of fossil fuels to a definitive end, we are releasing increasing amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere, compounding the environmental disaster currently happening across the globe.

The challenge we confront is straightforward: genuinely respond to the evidence-based situation of our crisis or endure the results of this profound moral failure for generations ahead.